The Priority Gap

Insights on the 2024 Election Outcome

November 28, 2024

Topic

Democracy & Elections

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Immediately following the 2024 election, More in Common asked 5,005 Americans, representative of the country, questions to better understand what shaped their voting decisions, their views on polarization-related issues – and most importantly, if they accurately understood one another.

Election Perception Gaps

Inflation is the top concern for all types of Americans and they believe Republicans share it much more than Democrats.

Every major demographic group holds inflation as a top concern: men and women, Americans of all racial backgrounds, generations, geographic regions, classes and political parties. On average, the economy ranks second and immigration third.
When asked about Republicans’ priorities, Americans perceive inflation and the economy as among their top three priorities.
However, when Americans are asked about Democrats’ top priorities, inflation is only among the top six most selected issues, and the economy comes ninth.

Perceptions of parties’ priorities appear to be influenced by the parties’ ideological wings.

Most groups, including Republicans themselves, slightly overestimate how much Republicans are focused on immigration. However, it is the most common priority for the right wing, Devoted Conservatives, 65% of whom selected it.
Americans also appear to conflate Democrats’ priorities with those of Progressive Activists, the left wing. While inflation is the most common priority for Democrats overall, among Progressive Activists the most common priorities are climate change (39%), abortion (39%), healthcare (32%), inequality (31%), inflation (26%), and LGBT/transgender policies (21%).

Across demographic groups, Americans misperceive transgender policy as a leading priority for Democrats.

On average, Americans perceive LGBT/transgender policies as Democrats’ second-highest priority (after abortion); in reality, LGBT/transgender policies are the 14th highest priority.
This misperception is held widely, including by key demographic groups such as Gen Z, Hispanics, and women.
Even the left-wing Progressive Activists rank LGBT/transgender policies as their sixth highest priority, suggesting that other causes explain its inflated prioritization, such as the Trump campaign attack ads on the subject.

16%

of Americans decided which presidential candidate to vote for in the final days before the election.

2x

the amount of Republicans who now trust election officials as compared to June 2024 (50% vs 24%).

67%

of Americans feel that we “need to heal as a nation.”

Election Insights

Beyond priority gaps, we found other important trends.

Late deciders swung towards Trump.

Voters who decided who to vote for in the final days before the election skewed towards Trump (57%) vs. Harris (39%).
Representing 16% of all voters, 2024 late deciders were most common among the Politically Disengaged (23% decided in final days before the election), Millennials (25%), and Gen Z (25%), Hispanics (23%), and Blacks (23%).
Among Politically Disengaged voters, Trump’s vote share remained steady with 2020 (24% in 2020; 25% in 2024); Democrat turnout from this group appears to have dropped (21% in 2020; 16% in 2024).
Notably, many more of Donald Trump’s voters are Politically Disengaged (22%) than right-wing Devoted Conservatives (7%).

Views on immigration, the leading non-economic issue for voters, are nuanced.

70% of Americans believe that the US-Mexico border is either an emergency (24%) or a major problem (46%).
However, most (58%) remain supportive of accepting refugees – including a majority of both Democrats and Independents.
Furthermore, 88% of Republicans believe that “properly controlled immigration can be good for America.”

Republicans trust in elections doubled following the Trump victory.

After Trump won the 2024 presidential election, 50% of Republicans report trusting election officials, twice the trust level (24%) seen in June 2024.
Trust also increased among Independents, growing from 34% to 42%.
Democrats’ trust levels remain similar from June through Trump’s victory (63% vs 59%).

Americans of both parties overlook commonality in attitudes towards the country.

Democrats estimate that just half (51%) of Republicans agree with the statement that “I’m proud to be American, though I acknowledge my country’s flaws.” In reality, Republicans overwhelmingly agree (94%).
Similarly, Republicans estimate that half of Democrats agree with this statement, yet most Democrats agree (81%).
Despite a harsh election and assassination attempts, Americans feel that we “need to heal as a nation” (67%) , rather than “to defeat the evil within our nation” (33%), an emphasis which has grown over recent years.

Polling Firm: More in Common
Sample Size: N = 5,005 US General Population
Fieldwork Dates: November 7 to November 13, 2024
Margin of Error: +/- 1.4 for US avg.

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