The War in Iran & the Shifting Trump Coalition

In the 2024 presidential election, President Trump won the popular vote by expanding his coalition in unprecedented ways. More moderates, independents, Hispanics, Black Americans, young Americans, and voters in blue states supported him than any other Republican presidential candidate this century. Much of this support was gained by persuading voters that he shared their priorities. Eighteen months later, some of these dynamics appear to be shifting. 

The president’s decision to engage in a war with Iran has been controversial. Our most recent survey, conducted from March 30 to April 6 among a nationally representative sample of 1,469 US adults and 1,901 2024 Trump voters, finds that just 25 percent of Americans support the war while 52 percent are opposed. 

Recent headlines have focused on critics within the conservative media landscape, pointing to elite voices like Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly who have publicly broken with the president over the war. Yet this opposition risks being overstated: six in ten of the president’s voters are supportive of the war, his overall approval rating has dipped only modestly, and few Trump voters regret voting for him, with the notable exception of the Reluctant Right. 

In this analysis, we use the lens of More in Common’s Beyond MAGA segmentation to examine how the members of the President’s coalition—with their distinct viewpoints, priorities, and breaking points—are responding to the war. We explore where the coalition is holding and where early signs of strain are beginning to emerge.  

Here are our key findings. 

Key Takeaways

1. Support for the Iran war is strong among Trump’s most loyal voters, who largely see it as aligned with American interests. There is little sign of his key support base splintering. 

• 87 percent of MAGA Hardliners support the war, 83 percent believe the war was started to “protect American interests” and 76 percent think it is in line with an “America First” agenda. ​

• Seven in ten (71 percent) Anti-Woke Conservatives support President Trump’s decision to go to war and believe the war was started to “protect American interests” (72 percent).

• Mainline Republicans show high levels of ambivalence (25 percent) but little overt opposition (16 percent).

“If this action is what it takes to help this country thrive and survive, I’m for it. This  will also help to ensure our country’s safety against Iran’s regime.”  
– Alexa, 47-year-old White woman and MAGA Hardliner from Thibodaux, Louisiana

“While I don’t like that it seems to always be our country that has to be involved in  other countries’ relations, I think it was almost necessary in this case. It was a  dangerous, evil regime that was killing their own citizens and chanting ‘death to America’ while also threatening the life of our president. It does not make me think  of any particular example though.”  
– Ella, 33-year-old Mixed race woman and Anti-Woke Conservative Trump voter  from Mansfield, Massachusetts 

2. However, the Reluctant Right are mostly opposed to the war, skeptical of the President’s reasons for starting the war, and frustrated with its effects on their lives.

• A majority (54 percent) of the Reluctant Right oppose the decision to go to war with Iran, while only 26 percent support it. A mere five percent have “a lot of confidence” in President Trump’s decision-making concerning the war. ​

• A significant share (43 percent) believe the Epstein files may have played a role in motivating the war.​

• Almost 9 in 10 (86%) believe Trump is responsible for higher gas prices—a source of stress for them. ​

• Today, 34 percent of Reluctant Right express some regret about their 2024 vote for President Trump, more than double the level measured in August 2025. 

“I am one social security check from having my lights out. I can’t afford gas going up like my grocery bill.“ 
– Amy, 63-year-old White woman and Reluctant Right Trump voter from Walker, Louisiana 

3. Generational differences in support for the war are stark, with younger Trump voters about half as supportive of the war as older ones. Voters’ regret is growing among Gen Z. ​

• Among Trump voters, the Silent Generation and Baby Boomers are the most in favor of the war, with three in four expressing support. ​
• By contrast, less than half of Millennials (46 percent) express support for the war and among Gen Z, opposition (38 percent) is equivalent to support (34 percent). ​
• One in five (20 percent) Gen Z Trump voters now express some regret over voting for Trump, twice the national average (10 percent).

“I think it is a pointless war for the United States to be involved in; It will just waste taxpayer dollars. Yes, bad people will be killed in Iran, but America has other problems other than bad people in Iran. This feels like a lot of wars that happen in the Middle East; kill a leader, war starts, war goes on forever, more debt and millions of soldiers sadly lost without a clear goal.” 
– Liam, 20-year-old White man and Reluctant Right Trump voter from Peshtigo, Wisconsin

4. The war with Iran reveals a mismatch in focus between Trump and his voters. Voters’ top concern—cost of living—is generally not seen as one of the President’s top priorities.

• Asked to name their top three priorities, Trump voters name the cost of living as their top concern (listed by 60 percent), followed by the “economy in general” (35 percent), and then immigration (31 percent).  ​
• Meanwhile, Trump voters most commonly cite the president’s top priorities as immigration (60 percent list it as a top priority for the president), the Iran War (44 percent), and the “economy in general” (33 percent). Only 11 percent of Trump voters think the cost of living remains a priority for the president.